What the PUC Should Do

If they want what's best for the state's ratepayers

I want to start by saying that I’m upset with and disappointed in the Democratic Leadership in this state. I expect them to make knowledgeable decisions. Oftentimes decisions I’ll disagree with, but thoughtful decisions based on reality.

But when it comes to electricity, we’ve gotten stupid decisions. We¹ expect better.

WTF - We’re at the point where this guy has a better energy policy than Colorado

How Did This Happen?

My guess is that everyone was concerned about climate change (that’s good). And “everyone knew” that wind & solar (and batteries) solved this problem. And they avoided nuclear because the price is scary (it is) and there’s the looney-toons on the left opposed (they yell). So go renewables!

And those opposing renewables? Well it’s the Independence Institute which all of us² Democrats blow off as biased. It’s the oil & gas industry which we don’t trust. It’s various right-wingers who… you know.

So I’ll give most of the Democratic Leadership a pass on this. Because I was with them up until early this year when I started diving in to everything around power generation. So ok, we trusted what “everyone knew.”

But there’s a few… The Colorado Energy Office, the PUC, Gov. Polis’ energy advisor. These people should have been diving in to the numbers. These people should have been figuring out the costs. And these people should have had contingency planning for the subsidies being pulled. These people did not do their job.

And it’s beyond ridiculous that these issues are staring them straight in the face and they’re still screwing around acting as though continuing down the renewable path won’t bankrupt families (numbers here - read it).

Kick the can down the road?

I understand the desire for Governor Polis, his CEO & PUC, legislative leaders, etc. wanting to make Colorado a green energy example that they can all point to with pride. I’d like that too.

And they can keep the fantasy going for another 2 - 4 years before reality punches us all in the face. That is enough time for Governor Polis to complete his terms and for him and his appointees to leave and turn over the approaching tsunami to their successors.

I ask each of you involved to not do this. It will cause serious harm to the state. The PUC Commissioners in particular - you were appointed by Governor Polis but your job is to represent the people of Colorado, not the political interests of the Governor.³

And to the CEO and other energy advisors in the state government. Your job is to tell the Governor the truth, not tell him what he wants to hear. Yes it’s uncomfortable to do so. But your job is to serve him well, not gently.

The Xcel XJS Proceeding

PUC Commissioners, here’s where you need to stand up and represent the rate payers of this state. This proceeding is where you need to do what’s right. Because if you don’t, then the train is in motion to jack up rates, reduce reliability, and hammer our state’s economy. This is where you decide.

Here’s what you need to face:

1. Xcel will make more money if you go all wind & solar. They get their profit on the CAPEX to build all that, build additional transmission lines, and build the back-up gas generators. To their credit they are pointing out the costs of this path. But if you insist of going the expensive route, they’ll take it.

2. Xcel wins big if we get the large datacenters here.⁴ The rest of us, not so much. The main jobs once they’re built are security guard and geek squad. Rather than take risks to get this business, be very careful that the Big Tech companies are making iron clad commitments up front. 101% solid.⁵

3. More interstate transmission lines, joining a regional market - at times that will be helpful. And at times it will be hurtful. When everyone around us also is overcast with no wind - wholesale prices will skyrocket.

4. Electrify everything will happen slower than you’re estimating. And that’s a good thing when we’re projected to have less generation than we want the next couple of years.

5. TOU pricing is a great idea. But don’t assume you can get people to use it as you expect, especially for EV charging. Economists find it difficult to impossible to model human behavior because people often do not make the economically obvious choice.

Here’s what you should be doing now. Price out the CAPEX and OPEX over the next 10 - 15 years for:

1. Gas turbines to replace all coal plants and for all increased demand.

2. The wind + solar + battery fantasy approach.

3. Westinghouse AP-1000 plant(s) at the Westinghouse price of $7.5B to replace all coal plants and for all increased demand.⁶

With those models, and the legislative off-ramps, decide what is the lowest emitting solution that provides inexpensive and reliable power to out state.

Your Legacy

For Governor Polis and the leadership of the PUC and CEO - to a large degree what is decided at this point is what will be your legacy. Make the wrong decision and as electricity becomes one of the key issues in the state,⁷ you’ll all be blamed for it.⁸

Deservedly so.

1. Democratic Party voters

2. In my defense, I will listen to what the I2I says. But if I find it interesting, I then look for sources I trust to validate it.

3. I’ll argue it’s not in the long term interest of Governor Polis to drive off the cliff.

4. Also you only get them with gas or nuclear power. They’re smart - they won’t depend on wind & solar.

5. 90% solid is bullshit. Big Tech has very good lawyers. 90% they can easily walk away from.

6. Limited to baseload. All peak power should be everything else - hydro, wind, solar, biomass, etc.

7. I estimate that in the ‘26 election electricity will be a bigger issue than water.

8. And for those hoping to accompany President Polis or Secretary Polis to Washington - he’s not going to take those that slow-walked him into this mess.